This year, four students from my institute have applied to the same university-University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. As far as I can ascertain, their relative strengths and weaknesses are as follows:
Person 1: GPA-9.6/10 , good set of recommendations, Some good reading projects, two or three graduate courses in area of interest, GRE score-323, subject GRE score-53% ,
Person 2: GPA-9.2/10 , good set of recommendations, almost no reading project, ongoing masters thesis with great recommendation from thesis supervisor , no notable graduate course, especially in area of interest , GRE score-323, subject GRE-94%
Person 3: GPA-8.4/10 , mixed set of recommendations, one generic recommendation from a highly respected world-renowned mathematician , two great recommendations from thesis supervisors, masters thesis ongoing, large number of reading projects, 7-8 graduate courses in various areas with 3-4 PhD courses in area of interest all with near perfect grades , GRE score-330, subject GRE-88% , rising GPA
Person 4: GPA-8.4/10, moderately good recommendations, almost no reading or research experience, a grade of C in the only graduate course due to illness , GRE score-325, subject GRE-84%
Now, I know for certain that the admission committee at UMich knows the name of my institute and respects it highly. It took 2 students from my college last year and have admitted others before that. Whom do you think it may admit this year depending on above conditions? Person 4 has almost no chance in my opinion, but other 3 all have their strengths and weaknesses. Needless to say, I'm one of these 3. Can someone order their chances of admission?
Thanks in advance.